SlateLines earns a commission from sportsbook links on this page. 21+ and present in a legal state. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
I’m taking the White Sox at plus money in Game 5, and it’s a lean. Our baseball numbers call this a coin flip, and the price makes Chicago a clear underdog. Like every baseball pick here until the numbers build a track record, it’s a lean at confidence one.
The Matchup
- One game for the pennant series. Chicago won the first two in Cleveland, 3-0 and 4-3. Cleveland answered with 9-3 and 9-5 wins in Chicago. The winner plays Tampa Bay in the ALCS starting Monday.
- The road team has won all four games. Chicago won twice in Cleveland and Cleveland won twice in Chicago. Home field hasn’t meant much in this series, and Game 5 is back at Progressive Field.
- Cleveland broke Game 4 open in one inning. Pinch-hitter Patrick Bailey homered and José Ramírez hit a two-run shot in the fifth, then the Guardians scored six in the sixth, three of them on bases-loaded singles. Ramírez has been the best hitter in the series over the last two games.
- Both bullpens are stretched. Cleveland’s closer, Cade Smith, has pitched the last two games, including 31 pitches on Thursday. Chicago leaned on Erick Fedde for 61 pitches, and Grant Taylor gave up four runs without getting an out. Friday’s day off helps both.
- First pitch is 8:00 PM ET Saturday on TBS at Progressive Field. No significant injuries on either side.
The Pitching
Chicago starts Sean Burke, 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 172 innings. He’s been sharp this October: 14 strikeouts and one walk in nine and a third innings, including five and a third innings of one-hit relief in Game 2. He went 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA against Cleveland in the regular season, and Ramírez is 0 for 10 with five strikeouts against him.
Cleveland goes with Gavin Williams, who led the American League with 248 strikeouts and had a 3.76 ERA. He struck out 11 in five innings in Game 2 but gave up two runs and walked three, and Chicago won that game anyway. He also threw 18 pitches in relief on Thursday, his first relief outing ever, which could shorten his night.
How I See It
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the full season, swap in the day’s starter, and add a little for home field. Chicago scored almost 100 more runs than Cleveland this year, and Burke’s ERA is better than Williams’. That’s enough to offset Cleveland’s home field, and the numbers land on a coin flip. The price says Chicago wins about 44% of the time. That’s a gap of almost six points, past our four-point warning line.
The market has a reason: Cleveland just scored 18 runs in two games and has the home crowd. But the line has already drifted toward Chicago, from plus 124 at the open to plus 120 now, so I’m not alone. With a brand new set of numbers and a gap this size, it’s a lean. White Sox on the moneyline, lean, confidence one.
Bottom Line
Take the White Sox on the moneyline at . Lean. Our numbers make Game 5 a coin flip, the price makes Chicago a clear underdog, and the Sox have the starter who has owned Cleveland this year. The gap is past our warning line and Cleveland’s bats just woke up, so it’s a lean at confidence one.
Same-Game Parlay
Two legs for now, both posted at Fanatics. If the White Sox win, it’s most likely because Burke keeps Cleveland’s bats quiet, and a quiet night keeps the total down. Both legs need the same game, so this is one position, not two bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleBurke keeps Cleveland quiet and Chicago wins a low-scoring Game 5 on the road.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Saturday afternoon; confirm them before you build the ticket.
Best Props for This Game
We’ll add three to five verified props Saturday, each with a trend, a matchup and a real price, before first pitch. Player props not available in all states.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER