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Five college games on Friday night and a side on every one of them. Clemson at California gets the full write-up and the only stake. The other four are here so every Friday card carries a pick, and I’ll tell you which ones I actually believe.
Same arithmetic as the Saturday card: the current college ratings, updated after Week 3, two and a half points for the home team, and the gap to the number on the board. Under two points is a lean. Over four is a warning. No totals, no props.
The Friday Card
| Kickoff | Matchup | Line | Our pick | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 PM ET · ESPN | Army at Temple | Temple +3 | Army −3 | ||
| 7:00 PM ET · ESPN | Navy at UAB | UAB +6.5 | Navy −6.5 | Kicked off | |
| 7:00 PM ET · BTN | Howard at Rutgers | Rutgers −43.5 | Rutgers −43.5 | ||
| 8:00 PM ET · FOX | Northwestern at Indiana | Indiana −20.5 | Indiana −20.5 | Kicked off | |
| 10:30 PM ET · ESPN | Clemson at California | California +1.5 | Clemson −1.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
The Picks
Army at Temple, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN. Our numbers make it Army by 4.2, and the board says three. That’s a gap of about a point, so Army is only the slightly better side. It’s a lean. Take Army −3.
Navy at UAB, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN. Our numbers make it Navy by 12.2, and the board says six and a half. That’s over our four-point warning line, and the line has already dropped five points toward UAB since it opened at eleven and a half. When the gap is that big and the market is moving the other way, the market has usually been right. Navy is the side, but I’m staying off it. Lean, Navy −6.5 at Kicked off.
Howard at Rutgers, 7:00 PM ET, BTN. Howard is an FCS team with no rating, so Rutgers −43.5 is the pick as the priced favorite, and nothing more.
Northwestern at Indiana, 8:00 PM ET, FOX. The Hoosiers are fifth in the country and 3-0. Our numbers make it Indiana by 20.6, and the board says twenty and a half after opening at twenty-three and a half. That’s as close to perfect agreement as it gets, and it tips a hair toward the Hoosiers. It’s a lean. Take Indiana −20.5 at Kicked off.
Clemson at California, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN. The one we’re betting. Our numbers make it Clemson by 3.8 against a point and a half, the line hasn’t moved against us, and the Clemson defense is the best group on the field. Half play. Take Clemson −1.5 at Kicked off. Read the full breakdown →
Bottom Line
One Friday play: Clemson minus one and a half, a half play. Army and Indiana are leans, Navy is a lean I’m staying off, and Rutgers is a formality. All five get graded on the receipts page either way. The full Saturday card follows.
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