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I’ll take the Cowboys and the points in Rio. The numbers have this game close to even on a neutral field, and three is a lot to give in a coin flip. I like Dallas here, but four missing defenders keep me from pounding the table.
The Matchup
- This is the first NFL game ever played in Rio. It’s at the Maracanã, and Dallas is the designated home team, but nobody gets a real home crowd. Both teams take a red-eye Thursday night and land Friday morning. Ravens coach Jesse Minter was on the Chargers staff for their 2025 game in São Paulo, and he says the long flight matters more than the time change. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on CBS.
- Dak Prescott is rolling. The Cowboys lost 28-20 at the Giants in Week 1, then beat Washington 37-20. Prescott threw four touchdowns and passed Tony Romo for the most in team history, and CeeDee Lamb caught passes for 153 yards and two scores.
- The Dallas defense is shorthanded. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, corner Cobie Durant and safeties P.J. Locke and Malik Hooker are all out and didn’t travel. That’s a defense that has already allowed a 116.5 passer rating to opponents, now without four starters.
- Baltimore has problems too. The Ravens won 41-23 at Indianapolis, then lost 24-17 at home to New Orleans as an eight-and-a-half-point favorite. Zay Flowers (hamstring) is likely out for a second straight week, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley didn’t practice. Jesse Minter is in his first year as head coach.
The Number
Using the adjusted projections from our previews, Baltimore comes in at 9.1 wins and Dallas at 8.7. With no home field in Rio, that’s Baltimore by 0.4. The board has the Ravens by three to three and a half, depending on the book. That’s 2.6 to 3.1 points on Dallas, over our two-point line and under our warning line.
The line has moved a little the other way. It opened at Baltimore by three at most books, and some are at three and a half now, with the money coming in on the Ravens. That’s the market reacting to four Dallas defenders being ruled out, and it’s a fair reaction. It also means Dallas bettors are getting a slightly better number than on Sunday.
Our previews were skeptical of both teams. We had the Ravens under 11.5 wins because last year’s scoring was worth about nine and because the line was priced as if Lamar Jackson can’t miss time again. We had the Cowboys under 9.5 because the defense was the worst in the league last year and a new staff doesn’t fix that in a month. That’s exactly what worries me about Dallas this week. So it’s the Cowboys, as a lean at confidence two.
In-Game Bets
- If Baltimore runs for 100 yards in the first half. Leave it. That’s the Dallas defense without its starters, and it won’t get better in the second half.
- If Dallas leads at halftime. Do nothing. You have the side and at least three points of cushion.
- If the Ravens go up by 10 early. Look at Dallas on the live number. Prescott has thrown six touchdowns in two games, and ten points is two drives for this offense.
Bottom Line
Take the Cowboys plus the points at . Lean. The numbers have this game almost even on a neutral field, and three or more is a lot to give in a coin flip. Four missing defenders and a line drifting toward Baltimore are the reasons it stays a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
I’ve got Dallas getting a field goal, and in a game both sides expect to be a shootout, Dak Prescott is going to throw a lot. If the Cowboys stay close, CeeDee Lamb is catching a big chunk of those yards and Dak clears his number right along with him. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleDallas keeps pace in a shootout by throwing to Lamb, and Prescott's yardage rises with him.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted September 25; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
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