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I’ll take Tampa Bay plus eight and a half in Dallas on Thursday night, and it’s a lean. Our season numbers make this Dallas by about four, the board says eight and a half, and the line has already come down from ten. But those numbers were built with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, and he’s still out, so there’s no stake on it.
The Matchup
- Tampa Bay is 0-4, and every loss has been close. The Buccaneers lost 33-27 at Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland, 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay. All four by a touchdown or less, and they’ve lost nine of their last ten one-score games.
- Jalon Daniels makes his second start. Mayfield (thumb) didn’t practice Monday or Tuesday, and the team says Daniels starts. Last week the undrafted rookie went 19 of 27 for 148 yards, a touchdown and two first-half interceptions that turned into ten Green Bay points, and he ran for 55.
- Dallas is 2-2 and can score with anybody. The Cowboys lost 28-20 at the Giants, beat Washington 37-20, lost 34-31 to Baltimore and beat Houston 34-30. Dak Prescott threw for 335 in that one, and CeeDee Lamb caught 17 for 189 and the go-ahead score. Dallas scores 30.5 a game, second in the league, and gives up 28.
- The defenses are going opposite directions. Tampa is fourth in yards allowed and third against the run. Dallas is 30th in yards and 31st against the run. The catch is that Tampa is without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib) and corner Benjamin Morrison (quad). Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video at AT&T Stadium.
The Number
Our preview had Dallas at about eight wins once its turnover margin climbs back, and Tampa at 7.2 once you take last year’s turnover luck out. One point per projected win and three for home field makes this Dallas by about four. The board has Dallas by eight and a half, so we’re 4.7 points on Tampa, over our four-point warning line.
Usually a warning like that means the numbers are missing something, and here we know what it is. Tampa’s 7.2 was built with Mayfield. Last week I used that same fact to go against the Bucs. This week the market has already taken it out of the price. Dallas was a three-and-a-half-point favorite on the early line before Mayfield got hurt, jumped to ten after, and has come back down to eight and a half with most of the bets still on Dallas. When the line moves toward the team most people aren’t betting, I pay attention.
Here’s why it stays a lean. We’re over the warning line, and a rookie in his second start on the road in prime time is a real risk. But Tampa’s defense has kept every game close, Dallas gives up 28 a game, and eight and a half is more than a touchdown. Nothing on the moneyline at plus three seventy. This is a points game. Tampa Bay plus eight and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Daniels throws two first-half interceptions again. Don’t chase Dallas live. Tampa still lost by only three last week after two first-half picks.
- If Tampa is within a field goal at halftime. Leave it. That’s the version of this game we’re betting on, and a lean doesn’t need a second bet.
- If Dallas leads by 14 at halftime. Do nothing. Tampa’s defense has been good enough to make second halves close, but there’s no reason to add to a lean.
Bottom Line
Take Tampa Bay plus eight and a half at -110 at Fanatics. Lean. Our numbers make it Dallas by about four, the board says eight and a half, and the line has dropped a point and a half while most of the bets were on Dallas. Tampa’s defense has kept every game close. Mayfield being out is why it’s a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all posted at the book on the card. If Tampa covers, it’s most likely because Bucky Irving runs on a Dallas defense that’s 31st against the run and Daniels keeps finding Cade Otton on short throws. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleTampa covers by running Irving at a Dallas defense that can’t stop the run and keeping Daniels on short throws to Otton.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 12:30 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Four bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He leads the league in catches and yards and has cleared this every week, and Tampa is missing its starting safety and a starting corner.
- Trend3 for 3 in his last three: 153, 112 and 189 yards
- MatchupAntoine Winfield Jr. (rib) and Benjamin Morrison (quad) did not practice Monday or Tuesday
Dallas can’t run on Tampa, so Prescott throws, and he has been over this in each of his last three games.
- Trend3 for 3: 279, 276 and 335 yards
- MatchupTampa allows 78.5 rushing yards a game, third fewest in the league
Dallas has one of the worst run defenses in the league, and Irving has cleared this in two of his last three.
- Trend2 of 3: 89, 46 and 61 yards
- MatchupDallas allows 150.2 rushing yards a game, 31st
A rookie quarterback looks for his tight end, and Otton has cleared this every week.
- Trend3 for 3: 38, 56 and 37 yards
- MatchupDallas ranks 24th against the pass
Prices checked Wednesday at 12:30 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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