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The World Series starts in Milwaukee, and the Brewers haven’t played in eight days. Jacob Misiorowski has been nasty all year, but he hasn’t finished the fifth inning in October, so Milwaukee’s bullpen is going to throw a lot of this game. Tampa is plus one-sixty. That’s a big price for a Game 1. Rays Up.
The Matchup
- Milwaukee has been waiting. The Brewers went 103-59, the best record in baseball, then beat San Diego 3-1 and swept the Dodgers. Their last game was October 15.
- Tampa just finished the job. The Rays went 98-64, swept the Yankees and beat Cleveland in six, clinching with a 7-3 win on Monday.
- Milwaukee has the better team on paper. The Brewers scored 832 runs in the regular season to Tampa’s 736 and allowed 618 to Tampa’s 650.
- First pitch. 8:00 PM ET at American Family Field, on Fox. The roof makes the weather a non-factor.
The Pitchers
Nick Martinez starts for Tampa. He went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA in 31 starts. He doesn’t strike many people out, with 109 in 180 innings, but he pitches to contact and keeps games moving. In two playoff starts he has a 3.00 ERA over nine innings, including the Game 4 win in Cleveland.
Jacob Misiorowski starts for Milwaukee. He went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts, which is absurd. But in two playoff starts he’s thrown 4.0 and 4.1 innings, so this turns into a bullpen game early.
The Number
Take the margin out and the market makes Milwaukee about a 63% favorite. Our run-scoring numbers have the Brewers a little under that, so plus one-sixty is a fair-to-good price on the Rays. If Misiorowski is out in the fifth again, Game 1 becomes a battle of bullpens.
The honest case against: Milwaukee was the better team all year, eight days off can mean fresh arms as easily as rust, and Misiorowski can strike out ten if he’s on. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Rays on the moneyline at . Lean. Plus money in a game Milwaukee’s ace probably won’t finish. Rays Up.
Lines as posted Friday at 10:24 AM ET, after the starters were confirmed. Confirm them before first pitch.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs. If Tampa steals Game 1, it’s probably because Misiorowski’s night ends early, before the strikeouts pile up. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not two bets.
The angleMisiorowski exits early and Tampa wins the bullpen game.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 10:24 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
A bet beyond the side, with a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. It’s a Game Pick prop, a separate bet from our pick, so keep it small.
The stuff is elite, but the leash has been short in October.
- TrendUnder 6.5 in 6 of his last 8 starts, including both playoff starts (6 and 5)
- MatchupHe’s thrown 4.0 and 4.1 innings in his two playoff starts
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