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Penn State went 6-6, fired James Franklin in October, hired Matt Campbell and imported two dozen Cyclones to play for him. The books make ten wins a coin flip and pay plus money on one side of it. I will take the plus money, lightly.
Key Storylines
- This is a different program, not a reloaded one. Campbell arrived from Iowa State in December and brought the roster with him. His transfer class is 40 players and ranked fourth nationally, and 24 of them are former Cyclones: quarterback Rocco Becht, linebackers Caleb Bacon and Kooper Ebel, who combined for 17.5 tackles for loss last year, safety Marcus Neal Jr., who will captain the secondary, and Jamison Patton among them. Many will start. Continuity of scheme is real, but continuity of place is not, and Penn State returns just 52 percent of its production, 67th in the country.
- They will start a transfer quarterback for the first time in program history. All three scholarship quarterbacks left. Ethan Grunkemeyer, Jaxon Smolik and Bekkem Kritza all entered the portal, and Rocco Becht followed Campbell east from Ames. Becht is a genuine starter who has won a lot of college football games. He is also learning a new building, a new line and a new receiving room in a season the market has priced as a toss-up for ten wins.
- One starter is back on the offensive line, and the system is new. Right tackle Anthony Donkoh is the only holdover from last year’s five. Campbell brought offensive line coach Ryan Clanton from Iowa State and a redesigned scheme with him, plus guard Trevor Buhr, an All-Big 12 honorable mention who has not allowed a sack in 534 career pass-protection snaps. The line is the part of the transplant most likely to take a month to settle, and the schedule gives it that month.
- D’Anton Lynn is the best hire of the offseason nobody is talking about. Penn State pulled the USC defensive coordinator to run its defense. SP+ still projects that unit only 23rd, against a 14th-ranked offense, which tells you how much of last season’s roster left with Franklin.
- The kicker stayed, and that matters on a coin-flip season. Ryan Barker went 18 of 19 on field goals last year and was one of the most important players the new staff kept. Everyone else in the kicking game is new: sophomore Australian Nathan Tiyce takes over at punter and the kickoff specialist and long snapper are first-year starters. Ten wins from this schedule probably comes down to two or three one-score games, and Barker is the reason I am not more worried about them.
- The 6-6 was worse than it looked and the bowl win papered over it. Franklin was fired mid-season with the team ranked seventh after three straight losses, including an upset by an unranked UCLA. Terry Smith held it together and beat Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl to finish 7-6. The record everyone will quote in August is the bowl one. The one that describes the roster is 6-6.
Win Total Analysis
The number is 9.5, with the Over at +125 and the Under at -150. Shop it. The books do not agree on the number itself, and if you find this at 8.5 anywhere, the Over gets much better.
SP+, the ESPN power rating this series leans on, has Penn State 17th overall at 16.2 and projects 9.0 wins. Adjusted for the rating’s market bias, that is about 9.15 against a line of 9.5, a lean of a third of a win toward the Under. Laying -150 asks you to be right six times in ten, which is almost exactly where the projection puts the Under. There is no edge on that side, and there is no edge on this one either. It is a coin flip that pays plus money on one side, and when that is the whole picture, our rule is to take the side that pays, at confidence two and a light stake, and say so plainly. That is what this is.
Then look at what the Over asks for. Ten wins. The Under needs Penn State to lose three of twelve. From a team that won six in the regular season, changed head coaches, changed coordinators, changed quarterbacks, and replaced most of a two-deep in a single portal window. Returning production is 52 percent, 67th nationally, which is the lowest figure of any Big Ten team ranked in the preseason polls. That is the honest case against, and it is why this is a light play.
The schedule is the case for, and it is a good one. Penn State misses Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana entirely. Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland are six games it should win. Wisconsin, Northwestern and Minnesota are three more it can. That is a realistic nine.
Ten means sweeping everything soft and then beating USC at home, or winning in Ann Arbor, or winning in Seattle. One of three, with a proven quarterback and the kicker who made 18 of 19. I would not lay money on it. I will take plus money on it.
Take the Over at +125, small.
Big Ten Picture
BetMGM has Penn State at +300 to make the playoff and -375 to miss it. That is a market treating a 6-6 team with a new coach as a live bracket candidate, which says more about the brand than the roster.
The conference belongs to Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana this season, and Penn State plays none of them. That is the single most valuable thing on this schedule and it is why the Over is live at all. It is also why nine wins is the median rather than the floor.
Best Futures Bets
- Over 9.5 wins (+125): The play, at confidence two, kept light. A coin flip that pays plus money, on a schedule that dodges all three of the conference’s heavyweights.
- Under 9.5 wins (-150): The same coin, priced worse. Ten wins in a first year with a transfer quarterback and 52 percent returning production is a lot to ask. I agree with that sentence and still will not lay -150 to say it.
- To make the playoff (+300): Pass. It needs the Over to hit and then the committee to agree, which is two bets for one price.
- Shop the number, not just the price: If a book still has this at 8.5, the Over there is the better version of the same opinion. A full win of difference on the same team is the sort of gap worth opening a second app for.
Schedule Landmines
Weeks 1-3: Marshall at home, a trip to Temple, then Buffalo. Three wins, and a new coaching staff gets three live rehearsals before anything counts. If Penn State drops one of these the Over is already in trouble.
Weeks 4-6: Wisconsin visits on September 26, then a road game at Northwestern, then USC comes to Happy Valley on October 10. The USC game is the first time this roster faces a top-fifteen opponent, and D’Anton Lynn will be coaching against the program that employed him last season. It is also the likeliest of the three hard games to produce the tenth win.
Weeks 7-10: The hard part. Ann Arbor on October 17, then the bye, then Purdue, then a trip to Washington on November 7. Two road games against ranked teams inside four weeks. Penn State probably needs one of them, or USC, to reach ten.
Weeks 11-13: Minnesota, Rutgers and a trip to Maryland to close. All three are winnable, and if the Over is still alive here, the closing stretch is the friendliest on the card.
Bottom Line
New coach, new coordinators, a transfer quarterback and two dozen imported Cyclones, on a schedule that skips Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. The projection says nine wins and the market says it is a coin flip for ten. No edge either side, so I take the side that pays. Over 9.5 at +125, confidence two, a light play.
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