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Baltimore opened the week as a field-goal favorite. Then Lamar Jackson went down, Tyler Huntley’s season ended with turf toe, and now a rookie named Joe Fagnano is making his first NFL start, on Thursday Night Football, against the best team in the AFC South. The line flew twelve and a half points and I still don’t think it went far enough. Jaguars. All day.
Watch our 30-second take
The Matchup
- The Ravens’ quarterback room is a crime scene. Lamar is out. Huntley is done for the year. Baltimore is trading for Jacoby Brissett, and he can’t play until next week. So it’s Fagnano, who threw for 91 yards in Buffalo on Sunday.
- Baltimore is sinking. Three straight losses: 13-10 in Cleveland, 35-13 to Cincinnati, 36-10 in Buffalo. Zay Flowers saw five targets against the Bills and caught zero of them.
- Jacksonville is rolling. 5-2, fresh off a 42-7 beatdown of the Colts. Trevor Lawrence went 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns. The defense has allowed 111 points in seven games and is plus 7 in turnovers.
- Who’s banged up. Jacksonville’s Bhayshul Tuten and Travon Walker are questionable, and Jakobi Meyers is good to go. Baltimore safety Jaylinn Hawkins is out and cornerback Nate Wiggins is questionable with an illness.
- Weather and kickoff. Upper 60s, barely any wind, and a 35 to 40 percent chance of storms around kickoff. 8:15 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium, on Prime Video.
The Number
Jacksonville is plus 85 in point differential through seven games, about 12 points a game. Baltimore is minus 24 through eight, and some of those eight had Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Give the Ravens a point and a half for home field and we land on Jaguars by about 13 and a half. The line is nine and a half at the best price out there. That’s four points of daylight.
What scares me: the total is under 40, and low-scoring games don’t love double-digit spreads. A desperate home team on a short week can turn this into a rock fight. It’s a Lean, and win or lose, it lands on the receipts page.
In-Game Bets
- Baltimore scores first? Relax. One drive doesn’t fix a quarterback room.
- Jacksonville up 14 at the half? Sit on your hands. The pick is right where it needs to be.
Bottom Line
Take the Jaguars at . Lean. The best team in the AFC South against a rookie third-stringer in prime time. I’m not overthinking this one. DUUUVAL.
Same-Game Parlay
Two legs, one story. If Jacksonville is up big, Baltimore is throwing to catch up with a rookie, and that’s when Derrick Henry disappears from the game plan. Both legs ride on the same game, so it’s one bet, not two.
The angleJacksonville pulls away and Baltimore abandons the run.
Build it at BetMGM →BetMGM prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as of Thursday morning; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
We start from the under, and this one jumped off the page. It’s a Game Pick prop, a separate bet from the spread, so keep it small.
A rookie quarterback lets Jacksonville crowd the line, and a Ravens team playing from behind won’t run much.
- TrendUnder 69.5 in each of his last three games: 58, 45 and 53
- MatchupBaltimore has lost its last two by 22 and 26, and its quarterback is making his first start
Prices checked Thursday morning. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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